OCR Cut 19th Feb - Where to now?

OCR Cut has been locked in on Feb 19th—So what's next?

The Reserve Bank cut the OCR by 50bps/0.5% on Feb 19th, bringing it down to 3.75%. But now that the cut has happened, the real question a lot of people are is—what’s next?

Most experts agree that more cuts are coming, but there’s a lot of debate over how fast and how far. Some believe the OCR should land somewhere between 2.75% and 3.5% over the next year, but there’s plenty of caution around inflation, global uncertainty, and a weaker NZ dollar. 

Others argue that the economy is struggling and needs bigger and faster cuts to support growth. With inflation mostly under control, they say the real risk is slowing economic activity. At the same time, there’s concern that government policies aren’t moving quickly enough to help businesses and households bounce back.

So what does this all mean? More rate cuts are likely, but the Reserve Bank isn’t in a rush. They’ll be watching inflation, global markets, and economic data closely before making their next move.

With rates shifting, and potentially volatile, now’s the time to think about your loan structure and interest rate strategy. If you’re re-fixing, let’s chat—I can help you make the right call!